Why Trump vs. Clinton is suddenly a real race
(Or –The “Prestidigitators” of Democrat Poll Numbers are nervously practicing their sleight-of-hand numbers parlor tricks)
New York Post
September 9, 2016
Maybe Hillary Clinton isn’t going to be elected president after all. That’s a thought evoking glee in some, nausea in others, terror in some and relief at the removal of an increasingly tedious figure from public view in still more.
The thought is prompted by the CNN/ORC poll showing Clinton trailing Donald Trump in four-candidate pairings by a 45 to 43 percent margin. Clinton’s lead in the RealClearPolitics.com average of recent polls is down from 7.6 percent on Aug. 9 to 2.8 percent today. The FiveThirtyEight Web site has Trump’s chances of winning up to 30 percent.
The CNN/ORC poll has been criticized for having more self-identified Republicans than Democrats. Since random sample polling was invented in 1935, there hasn’t been a presidential election in which self-identified Republicans outnumbered self-identified Democrats. The closest was in 2004, when the exit poll showed both parties with 37 percent.
…The Clinton campaign’s goal has been to replicate Barack Obama’s 51 percent coalition in 2012. Assembling that coalition relied on spurring turnout among black, Hispanic and young voters.
There are plenty of signs Clinton is poorly positioned to do that. Black turnout and Democratic percentage is likely to be down, at least slightly, from when the first black president was seeking reelection.
Polls have shown Hispanics less interested and motivated by this campaign than just about any other demographic group.
Young voters, while repelled by Trump, are not attracted by Clinton. She ran way behind Bernie Sanders among young women as well as young men in primaries and caucuses. Four-candidate polls typically show Clinton running far behind the 60 percent Obama won among under-30s in 2012, with as many as 20 percent preferring Libertarian Gary Johnson or Green candidate Jill Stein.
So turnout could tilt more Republican this time. And these polls mostly don’t measure the impact of the recently released notes from Clinton’s FBI interviews that took place over the weekend before July 4. They were released late Friday afternoon before the Labor Day weekend, and only two current national polls included some interviews conducted afterward.
…According to polls, more than 60 percent of Americans believe Clinton is not honest or trustworthy. The FBI interview notes provide further convincing evidence that she’s a liar and a cheat. The kid gloves treatment she got from the FBI — no recordings, allowing aide and co-conspirator Cheryl Mills in the interview — confirm the impression that the fix was in And these polls mostly don’t measure the impact of the recently released notes from Clinton’s FBI interviews that took place over the weekend before July 4. They were released late Friday afternoon before the Labor Day weekend, and only two current national polls included some interviews conducted afterward.
… suddenly it’s looking like a real contest.
Their post can be read HERE.
Real Clear Politics Appears to be the go-to polling site for many:
RCP as of September 10, 2016……Trump 44……Clinton 45
RCP Average as of September 8, 2016 (note these do not reflect pre-Labor Day FBI and debate):
Florida……………Trump 44………Clinton 44.8
Iowa………………Trump 42……….Clinton 41.5
Colorado…………Trump 35.3……Clinton 45.0
Michigan…………Trump 38.7……Clinton 46.0
N Hampshire……Trump 36.3……Clinton 44.0
N Carolina……….Trump 43.5…….Clinton 44.3
Virginia…………..Trump 40.7…….Clinton 45.7
Ohio……………….Trump 42.7…….Clinton 43.7
Pennsylvania…..Trump 40.6…….Clinton 46.8
Wisconsin……….Trump 39.7…….Clinton 45.0
Clinton’s Favorability Rating ……..41.7 favorable……..54.8 unfavorable…….decrease of -13.1
Trump Favorability Rating ………..37.7 favorable……..58.4 unfavorable…….decrease of -20.7
POLITICO’s Battleground States Polling Average
11-state weighted average:………..Clinton: 45.4% ……..Trump: 39.8%
The overall Battleground States average includes the five most recent polls from each state, weighted according to that state’s representation in the Electoral College. A poll from Florida (29 electoral votes) would be weighted 7.25 times more than a poll from New Hampshire (4 electoral votes), for example.
I sincerely think watching polls (except to know where to have candidates hit hardest) is like placing a bet at a horse track before the race begins. The odds are if a horse has everything going for it from health to love of a particular kind of track – on a good day, the horse should win. However, that does not mean that once out of the post, the horse will perform well, the jockey will ride well, or a myriad of other issues. In this presidential race we have already seen a LOT of issues push candidates up, down, or out. We have seen pollsters with egg on their faces and have found out how the DNC rigged the primaries. Any number of factors can and will be rising or falling from now until general election day.
One thing that was pointed out in the CNN poll was that Hillary had a great percent of single female vote but that Trumps numbers for married women were rising. Seriously ladies, if you have a single brain cell HOW THE HELL could you vote for Hillary and the Democrat Party? If you are independent minded, have a family depending on you, determined career women and/or plan on having a small business venture, what are you thinking?
Every woman who has been interviewed has said point-blank that the current policies are killing small businesses especially start-ups. Hillary plans on continuing and increasing moves designed to double down on Obama’s last eight years. How can you justify voting for her if this is already hurting business? Look at the platforms NOT just the person. (Although looking and finding out daily how Hillary is ripping our country off and selling it out is sickening.)
You yourselves know how difficult it is to make ends meet now. WHY would you willingly vote for more of the same?
Trump is an unknown and definitely not forked-tongue politician – I get that. But ladies who have families, can you see a future where you can’t pay for food for your family or doctors for when they are sick. Can you see a time when neither or either breadwinner has a job? I can and many are currently caught in that web.
Heck we already have proof positive that Obamacare is going down the tubes yet we are expected to bail it out. What happens after it crashes? Hillary hasn’t even addressed the particulars except to say she would double down on Obamacare-type health program.
If you say “this will never happen here”, I call you a liar and uninformed.
It is ALREADY happening here. Post after post we have shown you cities and information across the US where the Democrat platform has ruined cities large and small. Where those cities are so ass-end in debt to the federal government they have to do exactly what they are told or end up in bankruptcy court. Yet because you do not like the plain, “man- arse” attitude of Trump you are willing to trip down that Democrat road in your high heels or sneakers? Seriously.
You would be better off paying for a boob job or liposuction than voting for Hillary. First she is damn old (even older than me). Most younger women have a serious issue with witchy older women. In this case I can heartily agree. Second, she is as sick if not slightly sicker than me. I have had two heart attacks and bypass surgery on the arteries in my legs. You get the drift? At least I don’t try to run a business or country knowing that my brain is no longer running at full capacity. Third, wanna bet she sets the stage for Chelsea to take over. (assuming there is anything to take over after she sells us out to the Muslims or Soros.) Finally, Hillary Clinton is hated by most of the world except those in the same pockets with Soros, the NWO groups, or the Brotherhood.
Once we follow down the Clinton road, there may never be a future where we can again say we are a country based on a republic with a constitution of, by, and for the people. Break the chain or we get broken. It is that simple.