Cruz rising in Iowa; Clinton back out to dominant lead

From: publicpolicypolling.com,  by staff,  on Nov 2, 2015,  see the article HERE.

I should note that I found this poll on hotair.com. They also headlined another poll by NBC/WSJ that showed slightly different results with Carson, Trump, Rubio, and Cruz as the leaders – that poll is available HERE, if you’re interested. As for why I chose to post the PPP poll rather than the NBC/WSJ one, that’s easy, it shows Ted Cruz in third place and closing. I’m simply using the same editorial discretion to post the poll of my choice much the same as when the Washington Post or the New York Times selectively feature or kill a story based on their political preferences. Garnet92.

Public Policy Polling

PPP’s newest Iowa poll finds a tight race on the Republican side in the state with Donald Trump at 22%, Ben Carson at 21%, Ted Cruz at 14%, Marco Rubio at 10%, Mike Huckabee and Bobby Jindal each at 6%, and Jeb Bush and Carly Fiorina each at 5%. Polling further back are Chris Christie at 3%, John Kasich, Rand Paul, and Rick Santorum each at 2%, Lindsey Graham with less than 1%, and Jim Gilmore and George Pataki each with no supporters.

Compared to our last Iowa poll in mid-September Trump’s support is down 2 points (from 24% to 22%), while Carson’s support is up 4 points (from 17% to 21%) putting them in the deadlock. The big gainer from a month ago is Ted Cruz though. He’s gone from 8% to 14%, and also seen his favorability rating improve from 51/23 to 62/16. Cruz is now leading the field in Iowa among Tea Party voters (34% to 24% for Trump and 22% for Carson), and voters who identify themselves as ‘very conservative’ (24% to 22% for Carson and 21% for Trump.)

Carson continues to be easily the most popular of the Republican candidates in Iowa with 74% of GOP primary voters viewing him favorably to only 13% with a negative opinion. He’s also the most frequent second choice in the state with 19% picking him on that front to 12% for Rubio, and 10% each for Cruz and Trump. When you combine first and second choices Carson leads the way with 40% to 32% for Trump, 24% for Cruz, and 22% for Rubio. Carson is leading the field among evangelicals with 22% to 19% for Trump, and 16% for Cruz, and also has the advantage among women with 22% to 19% for Trump, and 11% each for Cruz and Rubio.

Besides Cruz and Carson the gainers compared to our last Iowa poll, each of whom went up 2 points, are Rubio (from 8% to 10%), Jindal (from 4% to 6%), and Christie (from 1% to 3%). Jindal (60/18) and Rubio (60/20) have the highest favorability ratings of any candidate in Iowa other than Carson and Cruz. Even though he’s still lagging pretty far back in the polls Christie’s had an amazing transformation in his image over the last two and a half months. When we polled Iowa in August right after the first Republican debate, only 34% of Republicans in the state had a favorable opinion of him to 44% who held a negative one. Now 48% see him favorably to 28% with an unfavorable opinion of him, for an overall net 30 point gain. It’s been quite a turn around.

Heading the wrong way in Iowa as she is elsewhere is Carly Fiorina. We found her at 13% and with a 62/15 favorability rating right after the September GOP debate. Now she’s at just 5% and although her favorability rating is still good at 55/20, it has dipped some. The only person besides Fiorina and Trump to have seen a decline in their support of 2 points or more is Rand Paul who’s gone from 4% to 2%.

Jeb Bush is having a rough time in Iowa. Only 30% of GOP voters see him favorably to 43% with a negative opinion, giving him the highest unfavorable rating of any of the candidates in Iowa. Among those who describe themselves as ‘very conservative,’ just 25% see Bush favorably to 53% who have a negative view. One measure of how Bush-resistant GOP voters are is that in a head to head with Trump he trails 55/37. By comparison Trump loses by double digits when matched up directly with Rubi0 (51/40), Cruz (53/36), or Carson (55/35).

Also struggling in Iowa among the candidates who were included in the main debate last week is John Kasich. Beyond his 2% standing for the nomination his 22/37 favorability rating is basically the same as Lindsey Graham’s 20/38 spread, even though Kasich is generally taken seriously as a candidate and Graham is not.

As for Trump his 53/34 favorability rating is actually a little better than the 48/38 spread it came in at in September. He’s winning among GOP voters most concerned about electability (26% to 22% for Carson and 14% for Rubio), among men (25% to 20% for Carson and 17% for Cruz), and younger voters (26% to 22% for Carson and 12% for Cruz.) His strongest group though is moderates- with them he gets 38% to 12% for Carson and 11% for Rubio, and that’s what’s allowing him to have his small overall advantage.

Iowa Republicans have generally been getting less interested in watching the debates. 62% said they watched the August one, 56% said they watched in September, and that went down to 44% for last week’s debate. Even if not as many voters watched this time though it didn’t stop them from joining in the anger at CNBC. Only 9% of Iowa GOPers say they have a favorable opinion of CNBC, to 74% with a negative one. Of course those numbers aren’t that distinguishable from the 8/83 favorability the media has overall with Republicans in the state.

On the Democratic side in Iowa Hillary Clinton has really reestablished her dominance, getting 57% to 25% for Bernie Sanders, 7% for Martin O’Malley, and 1% for the now departed Lawrence Lessig. Clinton’s seen a 15 point improvement in her net favorability rating over the last six weeks, from +42 at 65/23 in mid-September to now +57 at 74/17. Sanders has continued to become more popular too, going from 56/20 to 62/20.

Clinton is really dominating with several key groups in Iowa. Among seniors she’s up 74/13 and with women she’s up 61/21. She leads across the board with the various constituencies we track but it is tighter with younger voters (43/40), men (51/31), and voters who identify themselves as ‘very liberal’ (48/30).

Full results here.

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And, for those political geeks (like me) who want to see the internals of the poll, just click on the “Full results” link and you’re there. They are interesting and easy to read. You can see the questions and how they were asked, which at times can be skewed by unscrupulous pollsters. I also noted that this poll was too new to be included in the Real Clear Politics average (I checked). We can expect some ebb and flow in the position of the leaders depending on debates and publicity, but the cellar-dwellers are not long for this world. I think that the buzz about Jeb’s campaign is anticipating a lessening of support for Bush III and is ready to assign it to hospice care.

Garnet92.

 

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10 Responses to Cruz rising in Iowa; Clinton back out to dominant lead

  1. captbogus2 says:

    I am beginning to believe the folks have looked at Bush XII and Bush XLIII and realized they really don’t want a Bush XLIV

  2. Kathy says:

    Buck is right, people don’t much want Jeb and he’s floundering right now with his fourth or fifth revamp. I give him another 30 days…maybe.

    Watching these polls is like watching a heart monitor on a hospital patient – up, down, up, down, but we’ve still got a year to go, so they really don’t mean much right now, do they?

  3. Grouchy says:

    I.R.,,, In more ways than one~!~!~! I’m still wondering about that alleged knock on the head she suffered in Iran, some time back. She’s been beyond wacky ever since~! (not that she wasn’t before,,, just a bit worse after!~!)

    • Garnet92 says:

      She is wacky, but as you say, she’s always been wacky. I don’t care what causes it, but I’m still hoping that we get some negative statements from the FBI that hurt her campaign – even without any formal charges – anything to torpedo her campaign.

  4. vonMesser says:

    This poll is by the same people that did the poll calling for a national religion.

    Per Wikipedia: Public Policy Polling (PPP) is a U.S. polling firm based in Raleigh, North Carolina. PPP was founded in 2001 by businessman Dean Debnam, the firm’s current president and chief executive officer.

    PPP is described as one of the “most accurate” polling companies and also as a “Democratic-leaning” polling company because it polls only for Democratic and progressive campaigns and organizations on a private basis.

    In addition to political issues, the company has polled the public on such diverse topics as the approval rating of God, whether Republican voters believe President Obama would be eligible to enter heaven in the event of the Rapture and whether hipsters should be subjected to a special tax for being annoying.

    • Garnet92 says:

      All the better that a dem-leaning pollster shows Ted Cruz (my personal favorite) at 14% and 62% favorability – his peak so far as I can recall.