My Prediction: A Cruz-Rubio Ticket

Cruz is without doubt the most intelligent, literate and cultured person running for president.

From: pjmedia.com,  by David P. Goldman,  on Oct 12, 2015,  see the article HERE.

Cruz + Rubio

Republican voters think the economy is the number one issue but can’t manage a public discussion on economic policy, as I observed Oct. 4 (“Who are you, and what have you done with the Republican Party?“). They flail at hot-button issues, defunding Planned Parenthood, for example, and look for scapegoats such as illegal Mexican immigrants (whose numbers are actually falling). It seems pointless to make predictions of any sort in the midst of the moral equivalent of a riot, but nonetheless I will go out on a limb: the Republicans will nominate Sen. Ted Cruz as president and Sen. Marco Rubio as vice-president, by process of elimination.

This conclusion seems inevitable by process of elimination. The voters are in a surly, rebellious mood and display their anger by telling pollsters they will vote for anti-Establishment candidates who never have held office (Trump, Carson, Fiorina, Paul).

CBS Poll Released October 11

Oct. 9 September
Donald Trump 27% 27%
Ben Carson 21% 23%
Ted Cruz 9% 5%
Marco Rubio 8% 6%
Jeb Bush 6% 6%
Carly Fiorina 6% 4%
Rand Paul 4% 3%
Chris Christie 3% 1%
Mike Huckabee 2% 6%

The four anti-Establishment candidates together command 58% of Republican preferences, according to the CBS poll. But it is unlikely that the party ultimately will nominate any of them. They simply are too volatile, too inexperienced and too labile to carry a presidential campaign. If that assumption is correct (and it is a big assumption), then that 58% will have to go somewhere else.

cruz

We can array the Republican candidates in a Venn diagram, with two regions denoting “experience” (holders of high political office) vs. the rebels. There is one name and one name only in the intersection of the two Venn diagrams, namely Cruz: he is perceived as anti-Establishment, but he has held high office at the state and national level.

Cruz is the likeliest person to inherit the 58% anti-Establishment vote once the Trump-Carson-Fiorina euphoria fades. It’s noteworthy that Cruz polls strongest among elected officials in the Republican race, at 9% this morning vs. 5% in September. Most of his gain appears to have come at the expense of former Gov. Mike Huckabee, which suggests that conservative evangelicals are consolidating their efforts around Sen. Cruz. The Republicans need a candidate with anti-Establishment credentials. A Jeb Bush ticket would risk defections to third-party challengers.

Cruz, moreover, has the strongest organization on the ground among all the Republican candidates. CBS news reported last week that he raised $12.2 million in the third quarter, more than twice the $6 million raised by Sen. Marco Rubio. Ben Carson, to be sure, raised about $20 million, but Carson simply will not be the candidate.  The average Cruz donation was just $66, and the Texas senator has a strong grassroots organization, perhaps the strongest of any of the Republican candidates.

Jeb Bush is weighed down by his family name, by his own diffident personality, and by his failure to persuade the big donors who supported his father and brother that he can win. He doesn’t suit the national mood. Sen. Rubio is a charming young man whose main disadvantage is to carry the baggage of the Bush administration’s failed foreign policy, tying his tongue in knots while apologizing for the Iraq War. The rest of the Republican field is hardly worth a comment. Rubio would make a terrific VP candidate. It’s a natural: with two Hispanics on the ticket, the Republicans have a better chance of capturing Latino votes.

Ted Cruz, in summary, is best positioned to capture the Republican protest vote, and best positioned on the ground in primary states. He is also without doubt the most intelligent, literate and cultured person running for president, a former national debating champion, and a star student of the conservative philospher Robert George at Princeton as well as the liberal law professor Alan Dershowitz at Harvard.  If I read him correctly, he has paced himself, allowing Donald Trump to grab the headlines, tipping his hat to this wild man of the Republican primaries by way of acknowledging the sympathy he has won from voters. Meanwhile has has spent most of his time building an organization on the ground, in preparation for the moment when the anti-Establishment vote fades. He carries none of the toxic baggage of the Republican foreign-policy establishment; on the contrary, he drew their ire for ridiculing the idea that the U.S, could turn Iraq into Switzerland.

There’s a case against Cruz, to be sure. Ronald Reagan is his political model, and he has watched so many Reagan speeches that he can do a persuasive Reagan impression. But in many ways he is still the tall, geeky bookworm who aced every exam and became every teacher’s pet and went through hell in junior high school. Ronald Reagan had a spontaneous wit and presence of mind. In February 1980, in a dispute with the moderator of a candidates’ debate, he stood up like a Hollywood sheriff at a Republican debate and declared, “I am paying for this microphone!” The voters saw the real Reagan all the time, and loved him. Cruz is studied, not spontaneous, and humor is not his strong suit. In some ways he evokes Richard Nixon more than Reagan.

Those are disadvantages, to be sure, but I do not think they will outweigh Sen. Cruz’ advantages. He is in the right part of the Republican Party at the right time. His debating skills and mastery of public policy will show well in a prolonged campaign, especially against a slapdash thinker like Vice President Biden. There simply isn’t anyone else whom the Republicans can run with the same skill set, organizational capacity and ability to unite the party.

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The author makes a good case for Ted Cruz’s qualifications – he is unquestionably intelligent, literate, and cultured. But those attributes aside, his most important qualification – to me – is that he has been consistently conservative. In his statements, his positions, his deeds and actions, he’s been a reliable conservative. That’s what we’ve been yelling loudly for, seemingly for decades. And now, we have a chance to elect the kind of candidate that we’ve been yearning for, especially since we’ve been offered faux conservatives (actually RINOs) for the last several elections. 

While I’m not as enthusiastic about Rubio, he does have some good qualities – as long as Cruz is there to control him. The two “Hispanics” in tandem could attract a greater number of Hispanic voters and that would be a plus.

I could go for this pairing, It may not be the best we could hope for, but it ain’t bad.

Garnet92.

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11 Responses to My Prediction: A Cruz-Rubio Ticket

  1. Buck says:

    If you are going to break it down that way why not a Cruz/Carson ticket?

  2. Kathy says:

    The author makes a good point that the Cruz-Rubio ticket would draw a lot of the Hispanic vote.

    What I don’t understand is why he and other authors/bloggers pair one candidate with another candidate as the P and the VP, when that’s not who they typically choose. Romney, McCain, Bush and even O all chose non-candidates as their VPs.

    Let’s say that Cruz did choose Rubio as his running mate – wouldn’t Rubio be a little insulted to be offered second place? That seems like a consolation prize.

    The comparison of Reagan to Cruz stops at their mutual love of their country and the Constitution. Cruz doesn’t have Reagan’s acting talents to draw on plus he’s been painted as the bad guy so many times.

    • Garnet92 says:

      All good points, Kathy. You’re right, it’s almost an unnatural pairing to combine two of the candidates for POTUS into the P/VP ticket, but stranger things have happened. I agree that Rubio might feel slighted, being offered the VP slot, but that presupposes that he has almost no chance at the top slot at that time.

      And I also agree that Cruz doesn’t have the natural charisma of Reagan, but he does give a good speech. I think that the media has demeaned Cruz so much as being obstructionist that it’s a label that he’s going to wear like a millstone for a long time. It’s a handicap that he’ll have to overcome.

  3. I think Cruz and Carson would be the best ticket or Cruz and Trump. Carson would draw a lot of black votes from Hillary. Trump would draw the Tea party votes.

    • Garnet92 says:

      Can’t disagree with either suggestion, rocky. Carson could work, but I can’t see Trump agreeing to being second fiddle. If he drops far enough in the polls, he’ll just bow out – to concentrate on his business interests – and support Cruz. At least that’s what I think/hope will happen.

    • rocky I like Trump too. He gets votes from all over the spectrum and he’d destroy Hillary Beast.

  4. CW says:

    Interesting. I, too, like Cruz for his understanding of the limited role of gov’t and the need to protect this country from invaders outside and in. I’m not sure Rubio will accept a backseat role but if that were the case then it would be an interesting race indeed because I believe Hillary will choose Julian Castro for her running mate, placing 3 hispanics on the tickets. Castro is the democrat party’s Obama of the future. They have great hopes for him and just need a way to get him positioned. Mark my words…

    • Garnet92 says:

      Ahhhh CW, you bring up Julian Castro. He is indeed an Obama clone. Did you know that in addition to being the former Mayor of San Antonio, he also got a law degree from Haaavard and gave a Keynote address at a democrat national convention? Now if Biden comes out and says that Castro is “articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy,” we’ll know that the fix is in.

      • CW says:

        I think the fix is and it’s been in the works for several years now. Julian Castro is a dangerous man. He knows how to work a crowd the same way Obama does.

  5. I really like Cruz but i don’t see him getting any cross over votes from independents,. While we wild right wingers love him for constant sticking to the constitution I fear for others he may be too much to the right for them. Don’t get me wrong, Cruz is my first choice.

    Rubio has a good command of foreign policy so I like him very much for that. I still have a bit of a sting over him being in the gang of 8 however and people (conservatives on Twitter) don’t favor him too much. But I will take a Rubio if need be.

    I’d prefer Carson in a cabinet position other than VP.

    I also could see a place for Kasich especially regarding the budgeting process.

    My preference is still up in the air but I have to say if it comes down to Hillary vs any Repub I’ll be voting for whoever the Repub is. I will not sit this out and let HIllary take over and finish off what Obama started. I think that would be a grave mistake.